Aluminum prices fall back from highs, secondary aluminum prices remain stable for now, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices]

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SMM reported on June 30:

On the futures market, today the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract 2511 opened at 19,835 yuan/mt. After a high opening in the morning session, it fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 19,715 yuan/mt during the session. It then stabilized and rebounded, closing at 19,800 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.05%. Trading volume was 2,740, and open interest was 8,279, with bulls mainly increasing their positions during the day.

In the spot market, SMM A00 prices fell sharply by 110 yuan/mt to 20,780 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 prices remained stable at 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt. Affected by the overall weakness in aluminum prices, the secondary aluminum market generally adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with little willingness to adjust quotes. However, downstream demand remained sluggish, with downstream enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and market trading activity remained low. Entering July, the lack of growth in terminal orders will continue to suppress the upside room for ADC12 prices, but cost support remains relatively strong, providing a floor for prices. In the short term, it is difficult to see an improvement in consumption. With the deepening impact of the off-season, it is expected that ADC12 prices will maintain a fluctuating rangebound pattern.

In the import market, the CIF quotes for imported ADC12 rose slightly to $2,450-2,480/mt, while the import spot price fell by 100 yuan/mt to around 19,200 yuan/mt, with immediate import losses expanding. Local tax-excluded quotes for ADC12 in Thailand were concentrated at 82-83 Thai baht/kg.

Note: Import profits refer to real-time profits.

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